ArcGIS Warbler Range Shift Analysis

I need a clear, reproducible workflow in ArcGIS Pro that shows how a 2 °C warming scenario will alter the Nashville Warbler’s breeding and wintering range by 2050. I have already assembled a very large point file of eBird sightings; your first step is to remove duplicate coordinates with the Delete Identical tool and then apply a 500 km geodesic buffer so out-of-place records don’t skew the results.

Using the Data Engineering interface, filter out migration-season observations—I only want peak breeding and peak wintering data in the final attribute table.

The core of the job is spatial analysis and comparison. After cleaning, calculate Mean Center, Median Center, and Standard Distance for both seasons, then compare those centroids with the official range centroids supplied in a separate layer. Once that baseline is set, run the exact same workflow on the 2050 climate-projection layer I will provide and quantify the latitudinal and longitudinal shift (in metres) for each season.

Deliverables—due September 29, 5:00 p.m.:
• A fully annotated ArcGIS Pro project package (.ppkx) containing the cleaned datasets, geoprocessing history, and both present-day and 2050 analyses
• Two high-resolution maps (one for breeding, one for wintering) highlighting current vs. projected centroids and standard-distance ellipses
• A brief memo (≤2 pages) summarising methods, centroid coordinates, and calculated shift distances

If you are comfortable with large spatial datasets, Data Engineering, and centroid statistics in ArcGIS Pro, I’m ready to get started right away.